Official government figures forecast cement

Official government figures forecast cement demand of 3.5Mt/year by 2019 [22]. The demand projection at the anticipated peak demand phase (2016–2020) will grow 18% per year. This is linked to an expected boom in construction activity that normally occurs in emerging economies [33]. During the peak demand phase annual growth of 10% and 5% of demand are expected [3]. Expected Cuban cement demand is shown in Fig. 2. For the Cuban cement industry to meet the sudden increase in cement demand, different scenario are considered. An overview of cement type proportion is shown in Fig. 3 and a detailed description of each of them is provided below. In this hcv protease inhibitors reference scenario traditional cement (OPC+PPC) proportions are maintained at the current level (63% vs. 37%). Investment are dedicated on maintaining and improve the existing infrastructure. Capital expenses will then be limited to: Actions 1–3 will increase clinker capacity by 1.1 Mt each [22]. In this scenario traditional cement (OPC+PPC) proportions are also maintained at the current level (63% vs. 37%), but higher investment capacities are foreseen allowing to build new cement plant when the demand increases. Investments in Santiago, Curazao S.A. and Nuevitas plants are then not considered in this scenario and new cement plants only provide the extra production capacity. According to the demand forecast, 6 new cement plants of 1 Mtpy capacity are required. In this scenario, a change in cement type proportion is considered, but only with existing cement types. Furthermore, investment capacities are considered as reduced as the BAU scenario. Therefore, the upgrade and maintenance of the existing cement plant is similar as BAU but cement proportion will move from 63% OPC-37% PPC to 25% OPC-75% PPC. The maximum PPC proportion has been calculated considering that a minimum amount of OPC was required for specific infrastructure work. Experiences of other countries with a more mature market such as India, where 25% of total cement production is OPC or France where the share of OPC in 2014 was also close to 25% support vasopressin choice. This scenario proposes the strategy of introducing LC3 into the Cuban cement industry. A gradual introduction is foreseen in order to reach 50% of the cement production with LC3 by 2050. In this scenario, low capital investment strategies are also considered and clay calciner are installed through the refurbishment of existing wet clinker kilns. Four calciners with 300kt/yr of calcined clay are needed to satisfy the maximum LC3 production by 2030 (equal to 4.25 Mt, 50% of total cement production by that date). The investment in clinker kilns are similar as the one of the BAU scenario. This scenario is similar than the previous one but a higher investment capacity is considered allowing to implement flash clay calciner for LC3 production. The investment in clinker kilns are still similar as the one of the BAU scenario. Fig. 3 presents the historical series of cement production in Cuba and the forecast 2016–2030 according to scenarios evaluated.
Method and data The success criteria assessment for the different scenario will be based on three parameters: the cement production capacity, the CO2 emissions and the ROCE. Actually, considering the construction industry, the cement production capacity represents the availability to fulfil the demand and provides in that sense fundamental services such as infrastructure and housings to the population. Since LC3\'s primary environmental benefit is based on GHG potential avoidance, this research explores CO2-eq savings because of the implementation of the previously defined scenarios. This also helps to define the scope of the analysis pursued from the LCA perspective. Finally, the Return on capital employed shows the efficiency of the investment and therefore represents the most limited proxy to economic sustainability (profit) even if other economic criteria should probably be considered.